LONDON, September 24 — American Express Global Business Travel expects hotel rates to climb across major business travel markets in 2027, and for the first time it is refusing to put a single number on it. The company’s Hotel Monitor 2027, published this week, presents every city forecast as a range rather than a point estimate, citing geopolitical uncertainty and commodity price volatility. The bottom line for travel budgets: rates rise almost everywhere, but the spread between best and worst case is unusually wide.
The ranges hinge on two conditions. Amex GBT said the lower end of each range should be used if the Middle East conflict does not resolve quickly, or if global inflation follows the International Monetary Fund’s July World Economic Outlook forecast of 4.7% for 2026.
If inflation runs above that level, the upper end becomes more likely. The forecasts combine Amex GBT data with IMF inflation and GDP projections, using Prophet time-series modeling.
São Paulo leads the increases
São Paulo is projected to see one of the largest increases among the cities covered, with rates forecast to rise 10.9%-12.2% in 2027. Buenos Aires follows at 8.1%-8.7%, Madrid at 6.1%-9.2% and Mexico City at 4.7%-7.1%. In the U.S., New York hotel rates are projected to increase 1.6%-2.5%.
Toronto is forecast at 0.5%-1.9%. European markets are expected to see continued rate growth.
London is forecast to increase 3.6%-5.4%, while Paris is projected at 3.1%-4.8%. Amex GBT said Paris continues to benefit from its position as a leading events destination.
Gulf pricing stays competitive
The Gulf outlook is more restrained. Dubai rates are forecast to increase 1%-2%, while Riyadh is projected at 1.5%-3.2%. According to the report, hotel occupancy in the UAE fell as low as 19.6% in March before recovering to the 40%-50% range.
Amex GBT expects hotels to continue using competitive pricing to attract visitors. In Asia-Pacific, Beijing is forecast to see a 1.9%-3% increase, while Bengaluru is projected at 5%-5.5%.
Sydney rates are expected to rise 3.5%-5% and Singapore 0.8%-1.6%. India is identified as a market to watch in 2027. While the country is projected to remain the world’s fastest-growing economy, Amex GBT expects hotel rate growth to moderate as additional hotel supply comes online.
The company said rate increases could still exceed 5% in some markets as global hotel companies continue expanding in the country.
Airfares add pressure
Rising airfares are another factor bearing on business travel budgets. Amex GBT Consulting said airfares were up 15% year over year in mid-2026, with increases on some Asia routes reaching as much as twice that level. The higher costs are putting pressure on travel budgets and shifting some demand toward Asia-Pacific, while business travelers continue to favor premium accommodations rather than trading down.
“This year’s forecast reveals a nuanced global environment where geopolitical uncertainties and commodity price volatility are shaping hotel rates in different ways across regions,” said Sara Andell, director, consulting strategy, Amex GBT Consulting. “Price is a key indicator, but it doesn’t always tell the full story.
We’re encouraging companies to consider what value means to them, and what they are getting from their hotel spend, not just the headline rate.” The report also examines the growing role of AI in hotel sourcing. Hotels are increasingly using agentic AI for revenue management and rate-setting, while travel managers are adopting AI-enabled sourcing tools to speed decision-making, analyze pricing and support negotiations. Amex GBT said the technology is contributing to a shift in hotel sourcing from an annual process toward a more continuous approach.
Investors will note that the wide forecast bands give corporate travel buyers room to plan for both outcomes. The figure that matters next is the IMF’s inflation path — the variable Amex GBT has built its entire 2027 range around.
