By 2060, Japan is expected to have 87 million people, down from 128 million at the time of the government estimate that put the figure in the headlines. That is a fall of about a third in half a century, and the number comes from one place: the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
What the institute projected
The BBC reported the estimate in January 2012, attributing it to a Health and Welfare ministry report built on the institute’s work. The projection ran on the assumption that Japan would keep shedding about one million people every year for decades. Ageing was the other half of the story. The share of people aged 65 or older was set to roughly double to 40%, while the workforce, defined as people from 15 to 65, would make up only about half the population. Life expectancy, already among the highest in the world, was forecast to rise by more than four years by 2060, to 84.19 for men and 90.93 for women.
The institute compiles these figures about once every five years, drawing on demographic data the government uses when it sets social security policy. Correspondents at the time called the picture grim, arriving just as Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda was pledging to push through reform of the social security and tax systems.
The census catches up
Four years later, the numbers on paper started to show up in the count itself. The 2015 census, released on February 26, 2016, found 127.1 million people, down 0.7 percent from 128.1 million in 2010. The drop of 947,000 was the first since the five-yearly count began in 1920, according to the Associated Press.
The same report repeated the longer outlook: about 108 million by 2050 and 87 million by 2060, unless the birthrate rises substantially or Japan relaxes its resistance to immigration. The institute’s projections also had almost 40 percent of Japanese over 65 by 2050, after nearly a third had passed that age in 2015.
Experts doubted the government could change course quickly. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had made preventing a fall below 100 million a priority, with a target birthrate of 1.8 children per woman against the current 1.4. Population experts said even hitting that would be virtually impossible to achieve in a way that stopped the slide.
Where the pain lands
The shrinkage is uneven. Tokyo grew to 13.5 million people, up 2.7 percent since 2010, as younger workers left small towns for the big cities. Out in the regions, blocks of shuttered shops, empty villages and thin bus and train service have become common.
Richard Katz of The Oriental Economist estimated that by 2045 Japan would have 13 percent fewer workers per person, so each would need to produce 13 percent more to hold living standards steady. Japan’s economy has stagnated for much of two decades, partly because companies are reluctant to invest in a market they expect to shrink. A World Bank report warned that pension and health spending across East Asia would rise sharply as families offer elders less support.
Sources
- Japan Census: Population Fell Nearly 1 Million in 2010-15
- Japan population to shrink by one-third by 2060 – BBC News
