In 2023, Japan recorded 5.8 births for every thousand people. It was the lowest birth rate the country has seen, and the decline has run almost without a break since 1950, apart from a small baby boom in the early 1970s.
Women in Japan had about 1.4 children each from 2010 to 2018. By 2022 the figure had slid to 1.2.
Fewer people each year
Using the annual October estimate, Japan’s population peaked in 2008 at 128,083,960. By October 2021 it had fallen by 2,983,352. In April 2025 it stood at roughly 123.4 million, which makes Japan the 12th most populous country in the world. In 1964 it ranked fifth, and it has slipped steadily since.
Some single years stand out. The population dropped by 644,000 in 2021, the largest fall on record since 1945, as births hit a low of 831,000. In 2022 the number of Japanese citizens fell by 801,000 to 122,423,038, and for the first time since the poll began in 1968 all 47 prefectures lost people. A 2023 study counted a decrease of almost 511,000 in one year, including foreign residents.
Part of the cause is minimal immigration. Part is the aftermath of events. The 2011 earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima meltdown killed about 20,000 people and cut average life expectancy by about 1.39 years. From January 2020 to the end of September 2021, COVID-19 brought at least 112,000 excess deaths.
The oldest population
Japanese people also live long. Life expectancy at birth was 85.00 years in 2016, up from 81.25 in 2006. It rose 20 years between 1945 and 1955. Regular health checks and a better quality of life are among the reasons given.
The median age was projected at 49.9 in 2024, the highest since 1950. Only Monaco has a higher one. The United States stood at 38.9, China at 40.2 and India at 29.8.
No other nation has aged faster. The share of people aged 65 or older doubled in 24 years, from 7.1 percent in 1970 to 14.1 percent in 1994. Italy needed 61 years for the same jump, Sweden 85 and France 115. By 2014 the share was 26 percent, and the Health and Welfare Ministry expects over-65s to account for 40 percent of the population by 2060.
What the projections say
Based on 2012 data from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Japan would keep shrinking by about one million people a year. That would leave around 70 million by 2060. The Health Ministry’s own estimate puts the 2060 figure at 86.74 million, down from 125.58 million.
Care for the old is already tight. Shortages in the service sector are a major concern, with demand for nurses and care workers rising.
Tokyo, meanwhile, recorded the country’s lowest fertility rate in 2021, at 1.08. Okinawa led at 1.80.
