Japan counted 36.19 million people aged 65 or older in 2025, or 29.4 percent of its population. That was the highest share among the 38 countries in the Statistics Bureau of Japan’s 2025 comparison.
The country got here faster than anyone else. Between 1974 and 2014 the number of Japanese aged 65 or older nearly quadrupled, to 33 million, or 26 percent of the population. Over the same stretch, children aged 14 and younger fell from 24.3 percent of the population in 1975 to 12.8 percent in 2014. Elderly people outnumbered children in 1997. By 2014, adult diapers outsold baby diapers.
A shrinking population
Japan’s population peaked at 128.1 million in October 2008 and has fallen since. Projections put it at 107 million by 2040 and 97 million by 2050 if current trends hold. A 2020 global analysis listed Japan among 23 countries that could lose half their population or more by 2100.
The fertility rate has stayed below the replacement level of 2.1 since 1974. It hit a low of 1.26 in 2005 and stood at 1.41 in 2016. Experts read the small rebound as a shift in the timing of births, not a real recovery.
Reasons for the decline pile up: later and fewer marriages, urbanization, poor work-life balance, falling wages, small homes and the cost of raising a child. About 40 percent of the labor force is non-regular, and the Labor Ministry says those workers earn about 53 percent less than regular staff on a comparable monthly basis. Young men in that group are less likely to marry.
Who pays for the old
The age dependency ratio, meaning people over 65 against those aged 15 to 65, was 40 percent in 2014. Projections have it at 60 percent by 2036 and nearly 80 percent by 2060. Over 65s are expected to make up 40 percent of the population by 2060, when the total could be 87 million.
Health care is part of the cost. Older people spend more time in hospitals and doctors’ offices; in 2011, 2.9 percent of those aged 75 to 79 were in a hospital on any given day and 13.4 percent were visiting a physician.
Dementia adds to it. A 2024 research-group report estimated that 4.432 million people aged 65 or older had dementia in 2022, or 12.3 percent of that age group, and 5.585 million had mild cognitive impairment. It projected 5.842 million with dementia in 2040, assuming 2022 rates held.
Living longer
Japan’s life expectancy was 85.1 years in 2016, 81.7 for men and 88.5 for women. In September 2026 the health ministry reported 107,677 people aged 100 or older, the first time the figure passed 100,000. Of them, 94,298 were women. The count was 153 in 1963, when records began, and has risen for 56 years in a row.
Health Minister Kenichiro Ueno pointed out that these people are living longer, healthier and more active lives, and credited advances in medicine and technology.
