In April 2021, Myanmar’s military leadership signed the ASEAN five-point consensus. That agreement, reached nine months ago, was designed as the bloc’s primary response to the February 2021 coup. It demanded an immediate cessation of violence, inclusive dialogue among all parties, and unhindered humanitarian access.
None of those conditions have been met. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, the junta chief, personally endorsed the plan.
Since then, the military has obstructed humanitarian deliveries, refused negotiations with opposition groups, and prevented a special ASEAN envoy from meeting detained leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who now faces multiple criminal charges. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners reports that more than 1,400 civilians have been killed and over 10,000 arrested since the coup. The crackdown targets both pro-democracy protesters and armed resistance groups, and the death count continues to rise.
The five-point consensus was a compromise. It imposed no sanctions, condemned no actions, and relied entirely on the junta’s commitment.
That commitment has proven unreliable. The military has not halted fighting, opened dialogue, or allowed aid through. The special envoy remains blocked. ASEAN is now divided over how to proceed.
Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Sen, who chairs the bloc in 2022, stated in a December 28 press conference in Phnom Penh that the five-point consensus remains the only available framework but acknowledged it is being ignored. He warned that ASEAN risks losing credibility if it cannot enforce the plan.
However, Hun Sen’s own position complicates matters. He has maintained close ties with Myanmar’s military and was the first foreign leader to visit the junta after the coup. Critics argue this undermines any pressure Cambodia might apply as chair.
On the other side, some member states advocate for tougher measures. Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines have pushed for isolating the junta.
Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Saifuddin Abdullah said on December 19, 2021, that ASEAN should consider excluding the junta from all meetings and summits until it complies with the consensus. Their argument is that engagement has failed and the junta only responds to pressure. This dilemma is not new for ASEAN.
The bloc has long operated on consensus and non-interference in members’ internal affairs. Myanmar joined ASEAN in 1997, and for years the organization avoided confronting its military rulers.
The 2021 coup broke that arrangement, forcing a response. But the consensus required to act has also paralyzed action. Meanwhile, the crisis inside Myanmar deepens.
Armed resistance has spread beyond initial pro-democracy protests, with ethnic armed groups joining the fighting. The military responds with airstrikes and artillery in civilian areas.
The humanitarian situation worsens, with millions displaced and in need of food and medicine. ASEAN’s credibility is at stake. The bloc has positioned itself as a regional leader on the crisis, excluding the junta’s political representatives from summits.
But that measure has not forced compliance. The divide among member states may widen.
Those pushing for isolation argue that anything less rewards the junta’s intransigence. Those favoring engagement say cutting off contact cedes influence to China and Russia, both of which have supported the military. Neither camp has a clear path forward. The junta signed a plan nine months ago and has ignored every part of it.
ASEAN is still arguing about what to do next.
