Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party won Taiwan’s presidency on January 13, 2024, with just over 40 percent of the vote. His party lost its majority in the legislature the same night.
The result matched the polls, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) finished second with 33.5 percent, and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) took 26.5 percent. Ko’s share was the biggest for a third-party candidate since James Soong’s run in 2000. CSIS said Ko drew votes away from both Lai and Hou. Lai’s tally also left him in a weaker spot than Tsai Ing-wen, who won in 2016 and 2020 with more than 56 percent.
A legislature with no majority
In the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, the KMT picked up 14 seats for a total of 52. The DPP held 51. The TPP won eight, and two independents aligned with the KMT took the rest. No party had finished without a majority since 2004, and the TPP now holds the deciding votes in forming a coalition to run the chamber.
A Carnegie Endowment analyst who spent the month before the vote in Taiwan called the hung parliament a serious test of the new president’s political skills. Tsai’s vice president would be inaugurated on May 20, and he takes office facing a chamber he cannot count on.
Beijing’s response
Two days after the vote, Nauru said it was cutting diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favor of the People’s Republic of China. Taiwan’s foreign ministry said China had repeatedly courted political figures there and offered economic aid to win the switch. CSIS counted 10 countries that have changed sides during Tsai’s time in office.
China’s government criticized the United States, Japan and European countries for sending delegations to Taiwan after the election. It also objected when the U.S. State Department and the Philippines congratulated Lai. Yet a spokesperson for Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office played down the outcome: “Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change.”
There was no large military exercise. Taiwan’s defense ministry reported no PLA aircraft near the island on election day, though a high-altitude Chinese balloon flew off the northern coast. From January 17 to 18, Taiwan counted 24 PLA aircraft around the island, some on rare night patrols. CSIS also reported that a volleyball competition was moved from Taiwan to Indonesia after a Chinese protest.
What voters wanted
Carnegie’s analyst noted that Beijing’s interference appeared to backfire. Terry Gou, the Foxconn founder, left the presidential race soon after Chinese authorities opened a tax inquiry into Hon Hai operations. If that pressure forced him out, it would be the first known time China had openly vetoed a Taiwanese presidential candidate. Chinese media and officials also repeated KMT claims that a vote for the DPP meant war and economic ruin.
Polling cited by Carnegie shows more than 80 percent of people in Taiwan want to keep the status quo of an autonomous island, whatever their view of its status. All major parties, the DPP included, say there is no need to declare independence.
The economy figured heavily too. CSIS pointed to housing costs in the main cities as a chief worry for voters, along with the cost of living and the island’s dependence on semiconductors.
Sources
- Taiwan’s Voters Have Spoken. Now What: Implications of Taiwan’s 2024 Elections for Beijing and Beyond
- Taiwan’s 2024 Elections: Results and Implications
Sources
- 2024 Taiwanese presidential election – Wikipedia
- Taiwan’s Voters Have Spoken. Now What: Implications of…
