PUNE, October 15, 2026 — The South Asian Climate Outlook Forum has released its winter climate forecast, indicating mixed rainfall patterns across the region driven by a very strong El Niño event in the equatorial Pacific.
Rainfall Forecast Shows Regional Divide
Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over northwestern and parts of eastern and southern South Asia during October to December, according to SASCOF. Below-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the central and southern peninsular South Asia and some eastern areas. The outlook reflects the consensus of national meteorological services from all nine South Asian countries and international experts.
Agriculture and Water Resources at Risk
Southern India, Sri Lanka, and the Maldives receive critical rainfall during the October to December period for agricultural operations, SASCOF noted. Northeastern areas like Afghanistan also receive a significant proportion of annual precipitation during these months. Changes in rainfall patterns could impact farming and water availability in these regions.
Temperature Trends and Ocean Conditions
Normal to above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most of the region during the outlook period. Sea surface temperatures are above average in the eastern equatorial Pacific and across most of the Indian Ocean. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean alongside the very strong El Niño.
Outlook Based on Multi-Model Consensus
The latest forecasts from several climate models indicate an increased likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions persisting through October to December. The outlook was developed by experts from the WMO, IITM, UK Met Office, IRI, RIMES, JMA, and CPC, in addition to NMHSs across South Asia. SASCOF stated that continued monitoring will be carried out by regional climate centres.
Historical Context and El Niño Dynamics
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Those variations have an irregular pattern, but do have some appearance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not easily predictable. It affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics, and has links (teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as “El Niño” and the cooling phase as “La Niña”. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change.
Participating Institutions and Monitoring Plans
The consensus outlook was developed by experts representing the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of all nine South Asian countries: as well as experts from WMO, WMO Regional Climate Centre Pune, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the UK Met Office, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Climate Prediction Center. SASCOF stated that continued monitoring will be carried out by regional climate centres.
Regional Climate Drivers and Seasonal Significance
The SASCOF winter outlook meets the demand for seasonal climate information about the crucial winter rains across a region encompassing Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The forecast reflects the very strong El Niño conditions now observed over the equatorial Pacific, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. These large-scale climate drivers are known to influence climate variability across South Asia. The latest forecasts from several climate models indicate an increased likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions persisting during the forthcoming October-December season, along with a continued likelihood of neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions.
Country-Level Impacts on Agriculture and Water Security
The southern parts of South Asia—specifically southern India, Sri Lanka, and Maldives—receive significant amounts of rainfall during the October to December season, which is critical for agricultural operations. Northeastern parts, including Afghanistan, also receive a sizable proportion of annual precipitation during these months. Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over northwestern and parts of eastern and southern South Asia, including the island nations, while below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of central and southern peninsular South Asia and some parts of eastern South Asia. During the season, normal to above normal maximum and minimum temperatures are likely over most parts of the region. Changes in these rainfall patterns could impact farming and water availability in these regions.
Sources
Photo: TNSE Mahalingam VNR (CC BY-SA 4.0)
