The winter rains that southern India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives depend on for farming may fall short this year, even as other parts of South Asia get more water than usual. That is the picture in the October to December outlook from the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, SASCOF, which ties its forecast to a very strong El Niño now observed over the equatorial Pacific.
A split forecast
SASCOF expects normal to above-normal rainfall over northwestern South Asia and parts of the east and south, island nations included. Below-normal rainfall is likely over most of central and southern peninsular South Asia and some eastern areas.
The stakes are agricultural. Southern India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives get a significant share of their rain in these months, and it is critical for farm operations. Northeastern areas, Afghanistan among them, also receive a sizable portion of annual precipitation in the period. Changes in the pattern could affect farming and water supplies there.
Temperatures look set to run warm. Normal to above-normal maximum and minimum readings are likely over most of the region, which spans Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
What is driving it
Sea surface temperatures are above average in the eastern equatorial Pacific and across most of the Indian Ocean. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions prevail, and several climate models point to the very strong El Niño persisting through the season, with the neutral dipole also likely to continue. Both are known to influence climate variability across South Asia.
Who produced it
The outlook is a consensus product. Experts from the national meteorological and hydrological services of all nine South Asian countries worked on it, alongside specialists from the WMO, the WMO Regional Climate Centre Pune, the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the UK Met Office, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System, the Japan Meteorological Agency and the Climate Prediction Center. SASCOF said regional climate centres will keep monitoring conditions.
Sources
- El Niño Shapes South Asia's Winter Climate Outlook
- El Niño influences South Asia winter climate outlook
