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Japan Is Preparing For A Harder World

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Tokyo, October 1 Japan’s 2026 Diplomatic Bluebook, released this week, declares the post-Cold War era has ended and the country’s security environment is as severe and complex as it has been since the end of World War II. Citing China’s military activity, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, Russia’s cooperation with North Korea, and the weakening of the rules-based international order, the document underscores the need for strengthened deterrence and response capabilities with the United States.

The Bluebook also reaffirms the US alliance as the “cornerstone” of Japan’s foreign and security policy, pledging to deepen economic cooperation and economic security. Japan intends to update its Free and Open Indo-Pacific policy and deepen cooperation with Australia, India, South Korea, ASEAN, Pacific Island countries, the G7, the European Union, and NATO, with the Quad and other groupings presented as practical tools for building this network.

India is highlighted as “an important partner in realizing FOIP,” with cooperation planned to be deepened in security, economy, investment, innovation, and people-to-people ties under the “Special Strategic and Global Partnership.” Japan describes Southwest Asia, including India, as strategically important due to its location along sea lanes linking Japan with West Asia and Africa, and as a significant market and production base because of its large population and economic growth.

The Bluebook emphasizes a broader Global South focus, recognizing the growing influence of developing and emerging countries and stating that Japanese diplomacy must account for their differing interests rather than treating them as a single bloc. On China, Japan expresses concern over military activity around Japan, the East and South China Seas, the Senkaku Islands, and tensions across the Taiwan Strait, while retaining the goal of building “constructive and stable Japan-China relations” and stressing the importance of dialogue.

Economic security has moved closer to the center of Japanese foreign policy, with goals including stronger supply chains for critical minerals, stable energy and food supplies, protection of critical technologies, measures against economic coercion, maintaining high standards under the CPTPP, and promoting WTO reform. The Bluebook treats AI, quantum technology, cyber capabilities, drones, and information warfare as issues affecting national power and security, calling for international rules for emerging technologies while strengthening Japan’s ability to counter cyber threats and disinformation.

Japan describes Africa as a key part of the Global South due to demographic growth and natural resources, planning to deepen ties through development cooperation, technology, and investment, including the “Economic Region Initiative of Indian Ocean-Africa” announced at TICAD 9. ASEAN is seen as central to FOIP, with planned cooperation in maritime security, digital technology and AI, green transformation, connectivity, and human-resource development. Japan is also expanding engagement with Latin America and the Caribbean, Central Asia, and the Pacific Islands, particularly where economic security, resources, markets, and connectivity are involved.

Tokyo remains committed to the UN and wants Security Council reform, but acknowledges existing institutions are struggling with current crises, leading Japan to see cooperation among allies and like-minded countries as increasingly important alongside the UN system. The Bluebook concludes that Japan is seeking greater room to maneuver in a less predictable world, widening partnerships across the Indo-Pacific, Indian Ocean, Africa, and the Global South while protecting economic and technological interests, with India positioned at the intersection of several of these priorities.

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