BANGKOK, September 9 — Thailand’s economy has grown better than expected despite a Middle East energy shock, supported by investment, fiscal spending, and technology exports, according to a preliminary assessment released by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office on September 7, 2026. The assessment followed AMRO’s Annual Consultation Visit to Thailand from August 24 to September 4, 2026, led by Group Head and Lead Economist Allen Ng, with AMRO Director/CEO Yasuto Watanabe and Chief Economist Dong He joining policy meetings.
Growth is projected at 2.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027, though expansion remains uneven, with technology-linked sectors advancing strongly while traditional industries, particularly small and medium enterprises, continue to lag. FDI-backed projects, especially in digital infrastructure and electronics, strengthened the investment cycle in the first half of 2026, contributing to the resilience seen in headline economic indicators.
Headline inflation is projected at 1.6 percent in 2026 and 1.3 percent in 2027, with price pressures contained as energy price increases recede, though cost pass-through and food prices warrant monitoring. Risks are tilted to the downside, including a sharp slowdown in global AI and technology-related activity that could weaken exports, FDI, and investment; further weakness in household incomes and vulnerable sectors that could become self-reinforcing; and energy, trade, and weather shocks posing additional headwinds.
Upside risks include stronger external demand and investment activity with wider domestic spillovers, offering potential for more balanced growth. AMRO recommends maintaining the current accommodative monetary policy stance as underlying inflation remains contained, with gradual normalization over the medium term once growth becomes broad-based and inflation is durably within target.
Financial policy should address legacy debt while facilitating new productive credit, and fiscal support should remain targeted at vulnerable households and businesses, with medium-term consolidation under the medium-term fiscal framework combining stronger revenue mobilization with more efficient spending. Transparent oversight of emergency and quasi-fiscal activities and clear communication on any temporary breach of the statutory debt ceiling would support fiscal credibility, according to the assessment.
Structural policy should sustain investment momentum and translate it into broader domestic productivity, employment, and income gains through stronger supplier linkages, workforce development, technology diffusion, and wider adoption of digital technologies and AI. Reforms to improve competition and resource allocation are needed, with the forthcoming 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan providing an opportunity to coordinate these efforts.
AMRO officials met with Vice Ministers Santitarn Sathirathai and Archawat Chareonsilp and other senior officials from Thailand’s Ministry of Finance, as well as Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat, Assistant Governors Chayawadee Chai-anant and Don Nakornthab, and other senior officials. AMRO is an international organization supporting macroeconomic resilience and financial stability of the ASEAN+3 region, comprising ASEAN members plus China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea.
