ORLANDO, FLORIDA, November 3, 2026 — The boba shops and dumpling restaurants that now dot Orange County’s strip malls tell one story about Florida’s Asian American population. The ballot box tells another, and it is far quieter. Florida’s Asian American Pacific Islander community grew 70.26% between 2014 and 2024, according to a joint study by the nonpartisan nonprofit APIAVote and AAPI Data at the University of California, Berkeley, yet its voters still turn out well below their numbers.
That gap is the question hanging over today’s midterms across Central Florida: whether the state’s fastest-growing electorate can finally convert cultural presence into political power.
The Numbers Behind the Surge
Florida is now home to the nation’s seventh-largest Asian American population. The AAPI population grew 48.4% over the decade, compared with roughly 32% nationally, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Nationwide, AAPI residents number more than 27 million, with about 16 million eligible to vote, APIAVote reports.
In Florida they make up 3.5% of residents, a share that swells in pockets. Orange County stands at 6.7%, close to the national proportion of 6.9%, while Alachua County holds the state’s highest share at 7.7%. Broward and Hillsborough also carry large Asian communities. The population is younger and more educated than the state average, with 60% holding a bachelor’s degree or higher, according to the APIAVote and AAPI Data study.
Turnout has not kept pace.
A Pioneer Watches From the Sidelines
Mimi McAndrews knows what it looked like before. In 1992 she became the first Asian American woman elected to the Florida Legislature, serving the 85th district in the House through 1994. Back then, she recalled, the community’s footprint was thin.
“Today, it’s awesome. Everybody wants to go to the Asian Fest, and everybody wants to eat Asian food,” McAndrews said. “I didn’t have that when I was growing up, or when I was running for office. It was hard to find good Asian food and the Asian groups that existed were not very present.”
The cultural shift is visible. The political one is uneven. Joaquin Rafaele Marcelino, a Filipino-Chinese American who recently graduated from the University of Florida, sees the stakes in races decided at the margins. “It’s just incredible to see how much influence we can have in these elections, which are decided by dozens of votes,” he said.
On the Ground in Orange County
At the Orange County Supervisor of Elections office on Friday, lines stretched out the door as early voting drew toward its Sunday close. Candidates for county mayor were making their last rounds.
Tiffany Moore Russell said her campaign was in “the final push. It’s knocking on doors. It’s phone banking around the clock, just making sure people are getting out to the polls to exercise their vote.” Her rival Chris Messina said he was meeting business owners and speaking with voters across communities. “The Asian American community, the Hispanic American community, Haitian American community,” he said. “We’re listening to them. We’re listening to their challenges, their problems.”
Analysts see no party with a cohesive strategy to mobilize those voters. Kevin Kelly, vice chair of the Orange County Republicans, spent Friday away from work helping voters navigate their ballots. “A lot of the things we’re doing right now revolve around our voter guide and helping voters understand where they’re gonna go and when they can go,” he said. Jarred Cornell, campaigns chair for Orange County Democrats, said volunteers were knocking doors, phone banking, texting and handing out voter guides at early voting sites.
A Community That Does Not Vote as One
The AAPI label hides as much as it reveals. Vietnamese, Indian, Chinese and Filipino communities carry distinct priorities, from immigration to education, which complicates any single pitch. Indian Americans, the largest subgroup, are increasingly running for office themselves.
In Florida’s 4th District, Democrat Pia Dandiya, a former school principal, is in a tight race against Republican Casey Aksar. Both Dandiya and Arizona’s Amish Shah have been endorsed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to flip seats. Elsewhere, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is locked in a tight Ohio governor’s race, Nithya Raman is running for mayor of Los Angeles, and Maryland Lt. Gov. Aruna Miller is seeking re-election. The trail was blazed in 1956 by Dilip Singh Saund, the Amritsar-born Californian who became the first Asian American and first Sikh elected to Congress and served three terms.
What the Early Vote Shows
Republicans held an 89,000-vote edge in early voting statewide as of Friday, down sharply from their more than 315,000-vote lead at the same point in 2022. Spectrum News 13 political analyst Eddie Fernandez said Republicans lead across the nine Central Florida counties, though Democrats are ahead in Orange, Seminole and Osceola combined.
The Senate race between Republican Ashley Moody, appointed in 2025 to fill Marco Rubio’s term, and Democrat Angie Nixon is closer than many expected in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024. A University of North Florida poll showed Moody ahead 49% to 45%, down eight points from July. The same poll found 61% of likely voters want officials to prioritize the environment “even at the risk of curbing economic growth,” against 26% who chose growth.
Nationally, AAPI voters leaned 60% Democratic in 2020, according to the APIAVote and AAPI Data study. A national APIAVote poll found 90% of AAPI registered voters plan to vote in 2026, up from 84% in 2022. If Florida’s AAPI voters matched their 2020 national turnout rate of 60%, the study projects they could shift the state’s down-ballot balance.
Early voting in Orange County ends Sunday, Nov. 1, with Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Sources
- Florida’s growing Asian American population’s untapped political potential
- Data centers, power bills, hurricanes: What’s at stake for the environment in Florida’s Senate race
- Central Florida campaigns make final push as early voting nears end
- South Florida Sun Sentinel (@SunSentinel) on X
- US Midterms: Supreme Court Rejects Trump's Bid To Segregate 20,000 California Ballots As Final Campaign Push Intensifies
- Governor to city council, Indian-Americans in fray in US midterm elections
Photo: Ashley Diane Worsham / Unsplash (Unsplash License)
